Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Dhamma Sangha and the Buddha


As I get on with Part #2 (after #0 and #1) of my analysis, one apparent "contradiction" stands out. The RSS , which, like it or not is what has shaped Modi to a good extend of what he is, is quite against a personality cult. The Nation of Bhaarat indeed is raison d'être for the 'Sanghi' and what is "worshipped" (if at all) in the shakhas is the bhagawa dwaja and not any person . One might occasionally hear from a Sanghi that "Doctorji said so and so" or "Guruji did so and so" or "Thengadiji started so many organizations" etc, but it is indeed far from personality worship

So then how come the RSS "allowed" ( keep aside for now the RSS stand that we do not interfere in BJP decisions) brand Modi to flourish ? How about the kaaryakarta ? Well, the way I look it is using the Buddhist chant. For the BJP, the Sangha (organisational setup - the RSS and its sister groups) has traditionally been the strength.. as you keep hearing, it is a "cadre" based party. Oh yes, who else can pull off such half or one million strong rallies with such apparent "ease" in various parts of the country ? As for Dhamma, it has been ups and down.. It remains Nationalistic, but the core issues that the party stood for once - J & K, Ayodhya and UCC - aren't the driving factors. I would like to see those as along the Shruti/Smruthi separation in Hinduism.. Shruti remains eternal, and that would the BJP's commitment to "Nation First" and to a good extent "Political face of those who are not anti-Hindu or p-sec", and the Smruthi part - the issues of the day, keep changing.

But then, in a complex Nation like India, with such a multi-party system, and more so with the BJP failing to make a major impact in the South, it is quite evident that only the "Buddha" factor can get them closer to a critical mass. Atal Bihari Vajpayee had the personality impact (Note: A hard core hindutva person may have been not satisfied with Vajpayee's 6 years, but hopefully UPA's 9-10 years have brought him back to the realization that something is better than nothing.. and indeed Modi's tenure must be giving a much better hope than Vajpayee's).

And thats the same "gap" that Modi is filling in now, but in quite a non-Vajpayee fashion. I do not want to go into an indepth analysis of Modi's abilities, but with time, he has been proving how much of a genius he is - at least in the current complex political environment, and given BJP's natural limitations, he is perhaps doing the best he can and exceeding many people's expectations already. In fact his strength also seems to be his unpredictability at least for his critics (which mostly comes from a false image of Modi, which they themselves built for convenience)   . Almost every day, or at least every big rally that he attends, he gives some new thought out. From firmly saying I am a born Hindu and Nationalist, to "Sauchalaya before Devaalaya" (Note: he did not say "No devaalaya", simply set the "priority right" so to say) to effectively bringing forth Sardar Patel to the discussion ..... the list is growing

Diversion1: Interestingly "greatbong" has been running a series on Modi as well.. and his third post is out too ! http://greatbong.net/2013/10/27/deconstructing-modi-part-3/
Diversion2: An interesting article, from last year, but happened to see now.. interestingly I share the same birth-day as Sardar Patel :)  http://www.niticentral.com/2012/10/31/there-is-a-sardar-patel-in-modi-16706.html 

And the way Modi is at it, by the time his critics ( media/Congress/p-secs/....) try to counter it, Modi would have moved on to the next .. And this is what is probably most irritating them and pushing them more towards "dirty tricks" - the latest trend seems to be to attribute to Modi (by way of twisting or sometimes completely fabricating) a statement that he did not make, and then calling him names !

Anyways , to sort of some it up, the need of the hour, even for RSS (as far its ambitions to see BJP as part of the next government) was a man who can withstand and move forward in such challenging circumstances. And the fact of the matter is that in how much the Sangh would have wanted the ideology to drive its cadres, the personality is very much needed and these factors are more often than not complementary to each other - as long as the personality is not selfish etc etc. In one of my future posts, I will perhaps dwell upon what long-term plan or atleast hope Modi may have in his mind - to put it in short, he is most likely using this also as a chance to re-energize BJP

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Can the numbers add up ?

Going back to my post in 2008 http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.in/2008/12/rajnikanth-chiranjeevi-and-future-of.html , the fundamental question is, will and if so why would the numbers be different this time for NDA ? Here is my take

2009 was a case were BJP (and perhaps NDA too) had many factors working against it - the projected PM candidate - Advani - was already getting into his old age and into Jinnah kind of controversies, there was still confusion on whether Modi was a contender, a fear that third front may become kingmaker (and a "last minute" swing towards UPA so that it can counter the third front in the wake of NDA being seen as having less possibility of getting closer to the 272, as compared to UPA).In 2004 too, there were factors working against the NDA - Vajpayee's health, and his "Hajpayee" image that made many of the core-sangh volunteers and supporters note vote and/or work towards BJP victory.. I tend to strongly believe that both in 2004 and the 2009, it is the lack of support from the pro-right volunteers and sympathizers that made the difference, and in 2009 it was worse than in 2004. In spite of this, in 2009 the NDA got the average of what I had predicted as best and worst- i.e close to 160

Things seem much more in order for the BJP in 2013 and the run up to 2014 - *assuming* that the Congress will not succeed in its dirty games that it often does in the run up to elections (that could be matter of another post).

I take some cues from this assessment - http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/with-narendra-modi-in-front-bjp-targets-262-lok-sabha-seats/articleshow/23118494.cms  and add a few of my own "theories".  One is that a few regional parties like AIADMK, possibly even the BJD will form post-poll alliance with NDA. Second is that there will be consolidation in Modi's favour that could, at least in some cases make it go beyond the maximum that BJP has won in particular state ever. Third, in "volatile" states like AP, one could see a potential atleast few numbers in favor of the NDA.. and it will count. Given all that, here is my chart - some numbers are carry over from my 2009 assessment, and I have added back many more states. Remember, the "max" may appear an exaggeration, but then at the end, we will take the average as well. Also, at least in some cases, the "max" considers a potential post-poll ally, multiplied with a probability factor for the same

State...........      Seats.................Min..............Max

AP ..................  42 ...................  12 ...............  22 ( TDP factor, perhaps even TRS)
Assam ............. 14 ...................   2 ...............    8 ( allies, tho' less likely)
Bihar ............... 40.................... 16................  30 ( Indeed , the jealour Nitish factor)
Chattisgarh.......11.....................  4..................  8
Delhi.................7......................2................... 4
Goa...................2......................0.................. 2
Gurjarat............26....................16................. 22 (The Gujarati pride factor, indeed)
Haryana............10......................4 .................. 6 (allies again)
HP......................4......................2 .................. 4 (I guess this is a very pro-Modi state)
Jharkand............14..................... 6...................10
J & K .................6 .................... 0 ................   2 ( NC factor, but probability is less)
Karnataka..........28.................... 10................ 18
Kerala  ..............20 ....................  0 ................   2
MP.....................29.....................16 ................24
Maharashtra...... 48.....................20................ 36 ( possible MNS or NCP !)
Orissa.................21......................6.................14 (BJD factor)
Punjab................13......................6..................10
Rajasthan...........25.....................12..................18
Tamil Nadu ...... 39 .................... 0 ..................30 (AIADMK, I feel a high probability factor)
Uttaranchal....... .5........................2................. 4
UP.......................80....................20................ 50 (indeed, the big one)
West Bengal ....  42...................   2 ............... 12 (Trinamool , but less probable)
Others ...............17 ..................   2 ...............   4

Total.................543 ............... 160..............340

Two points worth mentioning - one, the numbers are indeed an approximation and after all a prediction. Two, my 2009 min and max predicted were 112 and 212 - had a range of only 100. This time around the range is 180 ... That is quite explainable due to two factors - how the image of Modi will finally swing the votes in a National scenario when he is declared as PM candidate, is highly unpredictable. And two, the allies , pre-poll or post-poll are too volatile this time around as well.

With all that said, the average is working out to be a 250 !!  There is a small catch in this calculation - take for example AIADMK .. The average number that went to form the 250, is a 15 . For a moment, keep TN out - the average turns out to be 235 . Now, AIADMK (assuming it will win 30, which is quite likely) could either join, or not join .. and in the later scenario, make it a 265 !! .. TMC is the other party that could have a huge impact..

In other words the current NDA (including TDP) is likely to get (based on law of averages) around a 220 and the rest will depend on post poll alliances.

Post script: This part is posted on 2014 May 14. Just wanted see where and how BJP and NDA lost in 2004


BJP
Chng Ally
Chng

1999 2004
1999 2004
UP 29 10
0 1
Ukhnd Na 3 -16 Na 0 1
Bihar 23 5
18 6
Jhknd Na 1 -17 Na 0 -12
MP 29 25
0 0
Chtsgrh Na 10 6 Na 0
Mah 13 13 0 15 12 -3
Guj 20 14 -6 0 0
Raj 16 21 5 0 0
Kar 7 18 11 3 0 -3
AP 7 0 -7 29 5 -24
TN 4 0 -4 22 0 -22
Assm 2 2 0 0 0
Odisha 9 7 -2 10 11 1
Del 7 1 -6 0 0
Har 5 1 -4 5 0 -5
Pun 1 3 2 10 8 -2
HP 3 1 -2 0 0
JK 2 0 -2 4 0 -4
Goa 2 1 -1 0 0
WB 2 0 -2 8 1 -7
Kerala 0 0
0 0
Others 1 2 1



182 138 -44 124 44 -80