Saturday, April 05, 2014

The numbers that matter

It is interesting to see that most of the non-BJP campaigners (Congresswallahs, the likes of Sharad Pawar, the Yechuris and Karat, and of course AK49) have made it a habit these days to keep repeating "there is no Modi wave". I bet that even in their sleep they must be waking up with the Modi cry and checking their bed !

So then, what exactly are the criteria to determine whether there is  modi wave or not ? Here is my take - BJP (not NDA) won about 116 seats in 2009 . A 50% increase in that can be attributed to anti-incumbency against current govt - so that makes it 174, which is also close to the maximum BJP has won so far which is 182 (1998 and 1999). Anything more than that, I would say is a Modi effect. In fact I would say the following if BJP alone wins as below

Modi wave: 50% - 75% increase - i.e 175 to 203
Modi flood: 75%-100% more, i.e 204 - 232
Modi Tsunami: > 100% more... i.e anything more than 232

Note that even the current UPA (not Congress, but UPA) has only 231 seats, and the rest is outside support. So a single party reaching 232+ will be an amazing achievement given the current multi party scenario and deserves a Tsunami name. We will know on May 16 if there is no Modi effect or if it is a wave, flood or a Tsunami.

For now,  we will have to depend on opinion polls. I do not believe that these are fool proof - not so much because of fear of being rigged by one party or other, but simply because the electorate numbers are huuge ( 80 crore+ ?) and a complex mix, and a sample size in the tens of thousand range is too small . Yet, these numbers may give a small sense, and being a number-man, I like to analyze these, knowing quite well that to a good extend these are fictitious. So for whatever it is worth, here is the table for NDA (Not BJP alone) as perdicted in end-March.

Sources:  (gives NDA - 33% vote share and UPA 27% ) ( NDA - 38%, UPA - 28%)

CNN-IBN does not give projected seats for "smaller states", and for the bigger ones too it gives a range. I have taken the average of that range in such cases.The averages of states however may not add up to the average of the final number given to NDA. IBN numbers are mainly to see where it sort of matched the NDTV numbers and where it does not.

It is interesting to note that the two opinion polls have significant differences in some matters - for example IBN gives NDA a 10% vote more than UPA and NDTV gives only 6% more, and this despite the fact that IBN has not counted TDP as part of NDA where as NDTV has !  States with 4 or more seats difference in prediction are mentioned in the comments section (Note: NDTVs seemandhra+telengana almost match IBNs TDP =15). Inspite of all those differences, the number predicted for BJP alone (remember, for IBN, its an average of the 206-218 range) almost match for both these - somewhere around 212. That makes it fall into the Modi flood category !

When results are declared on May 16, will it indeed be in the flood region ? Will it slip back into the wave region, or can it get into the Tsunami region ? If it is indeed in the flood region, and as predicted, gets the NDA to the 255 mark, where will the extra 20 come from ? AIADMK ? TRS ? YSRC ? BJD and TMC have said they will not support NDA, but will that change if BJP agrees for a non-Modi PM ? Time alone can answer !!

State Total NDTV CNN-IBN Comment
Bihar 40 21 25 IBN +4
Assam 14 3

Chattisgarh 11 8

Delhi 7 4 4
Gujarat 26 22 23
Haryana 10 5

Jharkand 14 10

Karnataka 28 16 10 IBN -6
Kerala 20 0 0
MP 29 25 26
Mah 48 36 27 IBN -9
Orissa 21 0 5 IBN +5
Punjab 13 6

Rajasthan 25 21 23
Seemandhra 25 14 0 IBN No TDP
TN 39 3 8 IBN +5
Telengana 17 2 0 IBN No TDP
UP 80 53 46 IBN -7
WB 42 0

Others 34 10

Total 543 259 240 IBN-TDP=15
BJP alone
214 212

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Let us take NDTVs 214 as the base. There is still room for improvement for BJP as follows:

Bihar - 5 ; Assam+Chattisgarh+Delhi - 5 ; Guj + MP -5 ; Karnataka - 5; Orissa - 5; Raj+Punj -3 ; UP -7 ; Others - 5. Thats 40 more, making it 254 for BJP alone.